Judging from a recent article on the spin-off stock CFL in Investors’ Business Daily,  the company is in an excellent position to continue to outperform the market.

Those of us who trade our own accounts do not get any points for beating the market, however.   What we need now is evidence that this is not only an excellent company that is doing the kinds of things that can make spin-offs great investments and contribute to their outperforming, but that its price is going up and will continue to go up long enough for us to make a profit.

In the much over-quoted line from the movie Jerry McGuire,  now we have to say “Show me the money.”

Going back to the same source where we got the fundamental information about Brinks Home Security Holdings’ business, the IBD,  hard as it is sometimes to remember,  about 80% of stocks move in the direction of the overall market trend and that trend is down right now.

Yes, that leaves 20% ( 1 out of 5 ) that are going the other way.   With the right kind of move and the right trading system it is possible to be on the 1 out of  5 side of the probability and still make money,  but it is hard to do.  You’d better be very disciplined and very alert if you want to take that on.

Remember, when the pros talk about their greatest enemy being ego, they are talking about things like believing that we are the smart ones who can pick the  1 of 5 stock and make money while everyone else is losing.

Brinks Home Security Holdings (CFL) might be the one to buck the trend . . . . its price has been trending up since November 12, 2008.

For myself, I am going wait, watching price and volume on CFL and the overall market for some clearer signs before deciding whether to enter or not.  I am definitely watching this one more closely than most.

Brinks Home Security Holdings is applying to trade under the symbol CFL. So far the logic of choosing that symbol has not been divulged, nor has the registration statement been filed, but they assure us that is all in process.

It will be interesting to see how the two parts divide out. Not that “home” anything feels too appetizing just now, but perhaps management will illuminate us on how this might be a real opportunity in the form 10.