“When Do Analysts Add Value? Evidence From Corporate Spinoffs” , an academic paper, was the result of viewing 1739 analyst reports on corporate stock spinoffs.

My first response was to think just how thankful I am that the authors of the paper read all those analyst reports and not me!  They did it and I don’t have to.  They deserve another step toward tenure.  Seriously.  Whew!

Their observation that even though analysts could add a lot of information about the prospects of the spun off company, they usually don’t was not much of a surprise.  Even with all of the SEC documents that are filed on pro forma financials and the information in previous filings on the part the new entity played in the whole company in the past, it is common for it to seem like it is a pretty empty corner of analysis and prediction.

Actually, I sort of hope they don’t spur the analysts to get into this area more, since that lack of interest and information has always seemed to be a source of the mis-pricing that can create value in a stock spin-off.  There are precious few of those now that computers and the internet are flooding us with more information than most of us can deal with anyway.

In any event, the online synopsis of the paper reads easily for an academic piece and is worth a look.

Tags: analysts reports on spin-offs, spin-off stock, stock spin-off, stock spin-off investing

This is a simple, well written book on financial statements.  From the best I can tell as a non-accountant, it’s got most everything you need to know to do a good, workmanlike analysis of a financial statement including references for  those cases where you need more.

Tags: book review, financial statements, Financial Statements DeMystified

Whoever chose Hot Trading Secrets as the title for J. Christoph Amberger’s 2006 book definitely knows how to write a title.

Whose interest is not piqued by the offer to be let in on secrets?

When they added that it would tell How to Get In and Out of the Market with Huge Gains in Any Climate I knew that I was going to have to read it, even though I concluded long ago that the reasons many people make much more money than I do has very little to do with secrets.

I have read that a belief that other people achieve what they do and have what they have because they hold secrets, they have connections, they started with money, or they have whatever other unfair advantage you can think of , is often held by people who are depressed.

These beliefs aren’t simply excuses, but have been described as going along with an inability or unwillingness to map out a series of small steps that are most likely to lead on to a particular goal. Help these people not think in blocks, but rather in “bite-sized” pieces, and they are very likely to feel better and become more effective.

So, . . . I vowed to look for the tools, the skills, and the knowledge that Mr. Amberger was going to tell me that I would have to have or gain to be more successful, if he indeed knew.

What I found as I read along was that taken that way he did indeed have some very helpful perspectives and specific tools that I will be able to apply to my own situation; some right away and some over time.

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Given that this is an Agora publication, I knew from the outset that there was going to be lots of good stuff in it, perhaps secrets even, but that it was going to be woven into a great story and a subtle, but powerful, “sell” for something.   And, this turned out to be true.  (I suspect that this book might be at least as valuable for an aspiring copywriter as it is for an aspiring trader, but that need be neither here nor there.)

I found it to be well written, engaging, and quite effective at telling the story of how various component teams and services of the Taipan Group come to many of the trade recommendations that they make to their readers as well a how profitable the best ones have been.   There are a couple of references to “proprietory methods”, but for the most part they seem to have put it all out there.

There are links to Taipan websites and e-letters in the sidebar of each chapter, but the author truly has given enough information that you can do it yourself, or you can subscribe to one or several of the services that use the systems described.

There was enough valuable specific information to justify reading and re-reading this book for me, but probably the most valuable gift was a look into how effective systems are built and developed starting from specific observations about how the markets work.

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Given the focus of this site on spin-off stocks,  I find myself with a better understanding of how important it is to remember  that the observation that spin off companies and their parent companies tend to outperform the general market and their sectors is good,  but that that is only a start.

Now I am looking at finding better ways to decide which spin-offs to enter, when, how, and when to get out.

I have not signed up for any newsletters or services  mentined in the book . . . . yet.

Tags: Agora Publishing, Amberger, book review, Hot Trading Secrets, spin-off stocks, trading, trading plan