Subscribe Feed (RSS)ITT Stock Spinoff:
Better As Three?
February 9th, 2011 by john | Filed under Spin-0ff News, Spin-off Investing, Uncategorized.
ITT Corporation has announced that it intends to use a stock spin-off process to separate the company into three parts: water technology, defense technology, and the rest of ITT that will be left with those two off on their own.
The is no lack of coverage or awareness of this or most other stock spin-offs now. Perhaps there was a time when spin-off stocks traveled under most investors’ radars, but that advantage for savvy value seekers has been diluted by websites, blogs, and even highly touted, heavily sold “all-you-to-do-to-beat-the-market” e-books and courses.
The ITT spinoff even has its own website to explain exactly what is going to happen, http://www.transformationitt.com . “Three Strong Businesses Positioned to Create Significant Value for Shareholders as Standalone Companies” is apparently their motto. The pro forma revenues are reported at $3.6 billion from water, $5.8 billion from defense, and $2.1 billion from ITT which they describe as “a diversified global manufacturer of highly engineered industrial products.” So you and everyone else has more than enough data to get totally bored or confused.
So what’s an individual investor to do? Other than give up the whole thing, of course.
First off, you can just read the information, draw your own conclusions and make your best estimates of the potential for the parts of the transaction, parent stock and spin-off stock. That can work quite well actually. Do you think defense spending will be cut? Do you think that the world demand for clean water will be a profitable area in the future? No one has a chart with data on the right hand side that goes beyond today’s date. Take a deep breath and make your own predictions. They’re likely to be as good as anyone elses.
As far as I can tell at this point, this spin-off does show signs of being a situation in which the sum of the parts could turn out to be worth more than the whole.
- Though the underlying theme is engineered solutions to complex challenges, each is working in an identifiably different area of application.
- All three entities are in the business of keeping an increasingly efficient flow of limited natural resources flowing to the world’s economies.
- It doesn’t look like the spin-offs are an attempt to dump toxic assets.
- Top executives from the current ITT are going with the new companies.
On the other hand, none of them seems as though it is going to be so different from the current parent company that they will necessarily be automatically dumped by current shareholders creating value that way and they haven’t told us how debt will be apportioned among the three companies. So, watching, reading, and trying to put it all together is going to be necessary.
Another way to go is to pick some measurable characteristic(s) of the companies’ operations that make sense to you for which you have access to accurate information.
This can take a bit of digging, but if you find something that others may not be taking into account, it can be well worth the effort.
Ratios can be helpful in this regard because they allow you to compare the data across several companies. The challenge here is to make an accurate decision about what companies to compare each component to. It’s fairly easy to find them for the current configuration in free content on the internet. For the current ITT the Morningstar website lists the price/book ratio to be 2.6, price/sales 1.0, forward Price/Earnings 12.7, and Price/Cash Flow 12.8. And often, others will even do some calculations for each component of the spin-off for you, especially for the high visibility spin-offs like this one.
Take advantage of those.
As with most stock spin-offs, there is plenty of time to watch the process unfold and decide if, when, and where to enter. Make the trade come to you.
Tags: ITT, stock spin-off, stock spin-off investing, Value Investing
It will be interesting to take a look at once the Form 10 is filed. Other than the investor presentation, there are no details about what the numbers are going to look like for each company after the split.
Obviously there is a lot of attention already but that doesn’t necessaily mean there won’t be an investment opportunity. 2011 is shaping up to be a great year for spin-offs.
Right on Jonas, on both points! Yes, until they actually show us the numbers we know very little, (other than to keep an eye out for the official filings.) And, yes, 201l is looking like there will be plenty to choose from.
John,
I often find myself a bit torn about commenting on spin-offs. I want to scream it to the world when I see a situation with huge potential returns. At the same time, I don’t necessarily want to alert all investors out there because it would diminish my returns.
Do you ever feel that way?
Definitely! When I started this blog, the topic was pretty much wide open on the net with book reviews of Greenblatt and the sites of the professionals being about it. Now it seems like a keyword search for stock spin-offs brings up pages of articles and sites. And, spin-offs have even made it to the honored position of the hard sell internet marketed product. . . .”the secret source of outsized returned that THEY don’t want you to know about”.
That having been said, I suspect that the mechanics of the transaction that can create value continue to operate for good reasons and that the markets are big enough that on the scale that I invest, more people knowing about it doesn’t dilute the potential significantly, but I have no hard data to support that.
I wouldn’t get discouraged John. There have been books on investing for decades – focused on value, growth, technical, spin-offs, etc – yet there continue to be great bargains out there everyday due to the same basic principles of fear and greed.
BWC is a great example of this. Even in a market where spin-offs are getting more attention than ever, BWC has returned 55% in about 5 months. I’ve been kicking myself everyday for not getting in after the initial dip, but it helps keep me focused that spin-off transactions will continue to be catalysts for unlocking value.
Brian,
It’s funny how some of these work sometimes. I looked at BWC and I didn’t think there was a sufficient margin of safety to get into it. 55% would have been pretty nice though.
I Try not to get too emotional about missed opportunities. It will screw with your head if you keep worrying about shoulda, woulda, coulda….
You know it is funny your guys mentioned Mdr and Bwc. Combined I am up 150 plus percent. I was mentioning this deal to people all over…. doesnt matter. Most people dont get it. Mdr had a strong cash flow , and Bwc had to do it to save its government contracts.
This was one of my better ones. But I think when you hear the word spin off it should also coralate to strong fundemtal value , great management , a moat , and of course Qualitative and Quatitative advantages. Which Mdr and Bwc have…. the only bummer was Bwc was to be 1 for 1 not 2 for 1…. that was a surprise. Btw I was talking about this in the winter of 2009…….Maybe a little earlier. All in all this was spectacular. And I am still holding….
I have been investing in spin-offs every since I read Greenblatt’s book back in 1999. I have beaten the market every single year and spin-offs make up about 80% of my portfolio. It never fails that at the beginning of every year I worry that the jig is up and that people pile into spin-offs and my 12 years of 30+% returns will suffer. So far it has never worked out that way.
I have a few ideas as to why spin-offs continue to be great investments.
Everyone knows that spin-offs are a great. What they assume is that every spin-off is great. They are not. For every BWC there is a Seahawk Drilling (-50%) or an AOL which gained like 5%. Those investors that jump into spin-offs not knowing that it takes research and analysis to pick out the good ones will get burned a few times and will stay away.
Another factor is that the announcement for the spin-off will make the news. Rarely does the filing of the Form 10 appear anywhere in the press. Most investors that heard about the spin-off could not tell you when it will occur and lack the desire to stay on top of the situation. It turns into a lot of talk about spin-offs but very little action.
For the record, 2010 has turned out to be my best year yet for spin-offs with a return a little over 50%. I am will not spend another day worrying about the returns of spin-offs. I do my homework and I pick my spots.
Very encouraging to hear from other guys who have been doing this for a while. I’m just in my 2nd year of spin-off investing so I obviously have a lot to learn still.
Klabzuba: I think it makes a lot of sense that most people lack the discipline to actually follow through on a spin-off. The initial report usually makes the news but the filling of the final FORM 10 can be many months away. I’d say most of the investing herd just goes for instant gratification and jump into the new “new” thing.
John,
too bad I have only found your blog about a week ago.
Are you still active or is everyone discussing their ideas some place else?
I commented on the SUNH – SBRA article
http://stockspinoffblog.com/2010/10/27/sun-healthcare-group-inc-sunh-to-complete-stock-spin-off-november-15-2010/#comments
and never received an answer ..
Philipp,
There hasn’t been much discussion going on here lately. I check the site regularly but not many new posts. I wish there would be more discussion but I guess its up to John to post new topics….
In response to your question, I have no clue how SBRA would trade on a foreign exchange. The stock has been up and down since the spin-off. Same thing with SUNH. SBRA just announced first acquisition but still haven’t announced a dividend yet. I still think both are undervalued.
Jonas (and hopefully many other interested people),
Thanks for your reply, at least someone keeps checking the website.
I am still investigating SBRA.
Here’s what I think:
1) SUNH’s CEO chose to work for SBRA now. Assuming he’s made a conscious decision and taking into account his experience this should add value to the company.
2) I am trying to review the 10K:
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=7774027-840-362669&type=sect&TabIndex=2&companyid=829211&ppu=%252fdefault.aspx%253fcik%253d1492298
I am wondering if I get the part on “Restricted Stock Units and Performance-Based Restricted Stock Units” right. As far as I read it, the management team still has stock options of 97.000 units x 17,24$ that vest in four years? If that’s true I assume the stock might be a very lucrative investment.
3) SBRA is one way or the other involved in real estate, which would be a disadvantage considering the current situation.
What do you think?
Philipp,
SBRA is structured as a REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust), which means that they will pay out approximately 90% of their funds from operations as dividends to stockholders. This is required of all REITs and they get a tax break doing it as I understand.
SBRA is a healthcare focues REIT, which owns primarily skilled nursing facilitities. They lease their properties to healthcare operators and collect rent under long-term triple net leases.
The fact that SUNH’s CEO decided to become the new CEO of SBRA is a positive sign like you said. He obviously must see a lot of long-term potential in SBRA or he would have stayed at SUNH.
SBRA has yet to announce their first dividend but they did say it would happen in the 2nd qtr. According to my calculations they should start paying about $1.16 annual dividend, which is an almost 6.5% yield. The share price also seems a little undervalued at current levels compared to the bigger REITs in the market. As SBRA diversifies its tenant base and continues to report earnings I expect the price to hit $20-$22 range.
You should go back and read the FORM 10 as well if you want a better understanding of the spin-off.
finally, yes the real estate market is still a mess but I think that presents a lot more opportunities for SBRA. They should be able to find abbundant deals worth pursuing. As long as they have quality tenants I think this market favors SBRA.
Jonas,
how do you come up with a stock price ranging between $20-$22?
I think I’ll go in now as the price is below the spinoff price (and hopefully now starts to increase).
Due to moving I don’t have my own internet connection right now, sorry for my short reply but thank you even more for your thoughts.
I’ll be back …
Well, both SBRA and SUNH is taking a hit today on a 11% proposed rate cut for 2012 medicare reimbursements. I personally think that the market is overreacting as usual. Most analyst are saying that it is highly unlikely that the rates will be cut this much. Some form of rate cut is probably inevitable given the budget gap but should be way lower than 11%.
Philipp, I would say today is a good buying opportunity. Obviously, SUNH’s performance is going to be tied closely to Medicare reimbursement rates but SBRA should be less affected. They have long-term leases already signed so the only concern should be SUNH’s ability to pay the rent.
In response to your earlier question about the price range, I would suggest you take a look at the financials. FFO, AFFO, dividend yield, Cash on hand etc. should give you a pretty good picture of SBRA’s financial health. You could then compare those ratios to the ratios of other healtcare REITs like HCP, VTR, NHP etc. Just remember that most of these other REIT’s are huge in comparison so you should probably discount SBRA’s value given the smaller size and lack of tenant diversification.
I’m still sticking to my $20-$22 price range. However, just because a stock on paper should be trading in that range doesn’t mean the market will always recognize it at first. It may take a while before we get there.
Jonas, at least someone keeps up the good work.
In the meantime, I have abandoned SBRA as I find it hard to follow a business that I am very remote from, especially sensitive national issues like health care and real estate.
However, I have noticed the price drop and still believe in the CEO knowing what he’s doing so I might try to grab a few shares after the rate cut this week.
I am trying to find a way to publish my own watchlist and stock picks to discuss ideas. I think standard blogs like this one are alright, but I am looking for a more flexible solution that is easy to manage, like a googledocs spreadsheet everyone could edit, or like a wiki that many people could participate in. But maybe I will just start another blog as there’s no other easy-to-adapt solution.
Two last thoughts:
Have you checked out dailyfinance.com? I think AOL wants to grab a few yahoo shares. It feels like dailyfinance sometimes has incomplete information on stocks but I find it a lot more compelling that yahoo finance, google finance or many other websites. Especially, I like the news ticker and the information on insider trades.
Here you can receive a 1 year motely fool subscription for a heavy 72 % discount. Not sure the reports are worth it at the regular price, but I think it’s worth spending the $50 discount price.
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….If XYZ spins off 1 share of ABC for every 10 shares that you own of XYZ then ..your total cost basis for all of these shares 100 shares of XYZ plus 10 ..shares of ABC still equals 1 000…If the price of the 10 shares of ABC you received from the stock spin-off is 4 ..per share then your total cost basis for these 10 shares is 40. Therefore your price per share ..for XYZ is now 960 divided by 100 shares or 9.60 per share…….This can get really complex especially when you own many shares purchased at ..many different prices and you need to figure out your new cost basis in the ..shares that you are left with after the spin-off or if the company spins off ..shares in several different companies…
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