Subscribe Feed (RSS)Frontier Communications, FTR, Down On Huge Volume
July 6th, 2010 by john | Filed under Spin-0ff News, Spin-off Investing.
To no one’s surprise, Frontier Communications, FTR, is down sharply on heavy volume after its stock spin-off from Verizon, VZ. Actually, there must be someone who is surprised, but apparently they are part of a small group of Verizon shareholders who were backpacking in the wilderness or who get terribly bored thinking about money or something.
On my weekly charts I see that over the last 20 weeks FTR has had an average of about 29 million shares change hands each week. Last week the volume was 110,589 shares with the price opening the week at 7.56 and finishing Friday at 7.35. Today by lunchtime on the East Coast today we’ve seen 27,332,000 shares change hands and the price is down nearly 5% at 7.01.
It doesn’t take Jesse Livermore to detect the current trend in the spin-off stock here, but so what? The question is always whether there is a workable opportunity in this action and if there is, how can we get on the profitable side of it?
Sooner or later this kind of thing usually gets over done, but in my limited experience, prices have an incredible ability to stay “too high” or “too low” for too long, getting me too nervous and/or too financially stressed to hold on until the price comes back to “reality” (which is an odd choice of words since reality is clearly the price shown right on everyone’s screen at every moment.)
So, what to do? For myself, (since as I mentioned in a previous post, my ADD won the day another time and I was amazed to find myself the proud owner of 12 shares of FTR,) I am going to hold onto the shares received in the stock spin-off for their entertainment value if nothing else.
When and if I buy more FTR in the future will be determined by the trading plan that I put together some time ago far from the heat and confusion of the specific companies and businesses and business cycles. Having tried to catch one falling knife too many, I find that having a plan and sticking to it is the only way I can stay sane and effective.
Tags: Frontier Communications, FTR, stock spin-off, stock spin-off investing, Verizon, VZ
When looking at Price/FCF (free cash flow = cash from operations – capital exp) FTR looks like the cheapest of the major players in the industry. Verizon, AT&T, Comcast, and Time Warner Cable all have higher ratios, which means you pay more for FCF relative to share price. Of course the FTR numbers are based on Pro Forma numbers and not actual numbers at this point.
I do not currently own shares of FTR and do not have any immediate plans to buy any. However, based on the FCF ratio and the huge dividend I will certainly keep it on my watchlist. If the price continues to drop from post spin-off selling I might jump in. Looks like the share price could go to at least $10.50. is this what a bargain looks like….?
Jonas, thanks for thoughts on FTR…I wasn’t really paying attention to it, but worth looking into. have they declared a dividend for it? What do you think the dividend yield is?
Did you all see that VPG started trading today? Opened trading at ~$10 but ended up around $12. Its still under book value, so I’ll be keeping an eye on it.
FTR announced they will be paying $0.75 annual dividend per share, which comes out to almost 11% yield at the moment. Hard to find that anywhere else.
I did see VPG started trading. So far there has been no selling it seems so not sure what to make of it. I was hoping that all the institutional investors would dump it. Maybe that is on the way. I calculated the book value at $11.08 per share so it seems its now below book value. Maybe we used different numbers somehow? Still, when comparing to its peers it trades at a discount. I’m just not sure if the margin of safety is large enough for me.
VPG was down 4% today on pretty heavy volume while the S&P500 was up 1.5%. Perhaps owners of this newly spun-off stock is now starting to dump it.
VPG down another 5.5% so far today. Looks like it’s finally seeing some selling pressure. Textbook spinoff case?
I’m new to these spin-off investments as well, but it seems like these things usually take a full month to really bottom out. I’m going to watch VPG from the side-lines for a bit longer.
Note that the McDermott spin-off will happen by months’-end. Would be curious about everyones thoughts on that.
Dave,
Thanks for the info on McDermott. I wasn’t aware of that spin-off since I’m new to this area of investing too. I’ll definitely have to take a look at that situation as well.
Regarding VPG, it has seen pretty light volume so far. VSH (former parent) was owned by 87% institutional investors prior to the spin-off, which means the ownership of VPG should initially be the same. We haven’t seen anywhere near the selloff by these investors yet. That is of course if we buy into the theory that institutional investors don’t want the stock.
Currently does not seem FTR is earning enough to cover the 75 cent dividend. Next year’s EPS estimate appears to be around 45 cents a share. If that is true I would expect the dividend to drop to say 30 cents a share, giving a yield of 4% at the current stockprice of $7.60. I’m avoiding this one for now – need to do more research on whether management can deliver on the synergies. They do have experience implementing several prior acquisitions. If they can maintain the dividend at 75 cents I would expect the yield to settle around 6.5%, implying a stock value of $11.50. Thoughts?
Craig,
I agree with you that FTR might have problems paying its dividends in the future. However, when you look at a company’s reported earnings you have to keep in mind that depreciation/amortization is subtracted before you get net income. If you look at the cash flow statement from the most recent annual report (prior to merger), you will see that the net income was only $123,181,000 and yet FTR paid out $312,366,000 in dividends and actually ended up with more cash then they had the year before. Granted, they did borrow 1.1 billion but they also repaid 1 billion of debt. looking at the net income is important but I think you also have to look at the cash flow statement to figure out where the actual cash is going.
I think FTR might have a hard time paying their dividend in 2013 unless they borrow money. They will have a lot of debt maturing that year and when you combine that with the $0.75 dividend per share it will exceed the free cash flow that year. they’ll be forced to cut the dividend or borrow money in my opinion.
Based on management’s cash flow estimates of 400 million plus for the year, FTR should be able to keep the dividend at 75 cents. Perhaps even raise it if management gets the $300 million in synergies it is anticipating. If it can maintain the dividend, should the stock price go up to lower the yield (currently a hair below 10%)?
Not a fan. I’ve had personal experience with this company. Plus, and admittedly this is not scientific, VZ seems to spinoff dogs at high prices. Remember, IDEARC? That was their phenomenal paper based phonebook. Spunoff in 2006 a $26.30 per share. Now bankrupt. VZ was kind enough to load it up with debt before packing it’s lunch.
I own VZ and really continue to hold it against rationale thought, to “make my money back”. And this is my reward. Crappy stock spinoffs as VZ tries to leverage poor businesses for financing. Smart, but sleazy.
PS – I sold FTR at $8.00
We’ll see if I am right or wrong. Took a loss relative to acquisition through spinoff.
Forget what the analysts say. Sell it.
My 02 cents.
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