Subscribe Feed (RSS)Buying Spin-off Stocks
Is Not A Trading Plan
…and you do need a trading plan.
March 4th, 2009 by john | Filed under Uncategorized.
Buying spin-off stocks has been found to be an excellent way to outperform the market, but it is not enough to simply find a spin-off and buy it. You have do more things than pick the right stock to be consistently successful.
What you need is a trading plan. Generally speaking, a trading plan includes at least:
- Some conditions that must be met before you do anything else; (usually called the set-up. ) What will be your sign that the time is right for your system to be most successful? For example, you might trade only spin-off stocks and their parent companies, or you might only consider stocks that are making an initial 52 week high, or that have risen a certain percentage on increased volume, or you might only enter positions when the market is trending up or down.
- What will have to occur for you to actually enter a new position. When the climate is right for your system, how are you going to find the best candidates for outsized gains? This might involve a break out of some kind such as rising above recent resistance, or forming a particular chart pattern such as the Wm. O’Neil “cup and handle”, or reporting an earnings surprise, or . . . . .
- The initial stop that will get you out of a trade if it doesn’t go as expected. This is how you protect your capital if you got it all wrong or something happened that you didn’t count on.
- The rules you will follow to make a profitable exit. There is no profit until you get out of the trade. How are you going to know when to get out?
- What size positions will you take and how you will get to that size? How much of your trading capital will you commit to each position? Will you enter in steps, or all at once?
Spin-off stocks are just a set-up, what I’ve been calling the watchlist. Where you go from there with your trading plan involves a number of decisions that you have to base on your capital, your abilities, your temperament, and anything else that you can think of that will affect your ability to carry out the plan without hesitation and without fail.
How you make the best match between yourself and the trading plan is both an art and a science. When it is right, everything else gets much easier.
As often been pointed out, you can’t be certain to win in the markets. All you can do is do what you have to to deserve to win and then live with the uncertainty with respect to gain or loss.
Tags: spin-off stocks, trading plan
[...] why a solid trading plan that limits losses, adds on to winning positions, and has criteria for when profits will be taken [...]
i want to invest in spinoff stocks to make money at home john bell says that after holding new spinoff a few weeks stock price will rise elsewhere i read can take up to to 2 years to rise which is too long for me to wait to make money which is mostly true for majority of spinoffs? thank you i would appreciate a reply
Perhaps the most accurate answer is that they both are, it depends.
In the “classic” spin-off scenario the spun-off stock is not an attractive hold to many of the owners of the original company for a variety of reasons, so they dump it. This drives the price down for a while. Then the new company starts to be measured on its own and, if it is undervalued because of the aforementioned selling, it starts to go up. When this does happen, it can indeed occur in a matter of weeks. This result makes for great examples, but is not a given.
The two year answer comes from academic research on spin-offs that took 2 years from the spin-off date as its endpoint and found that both the parent and the spin-off outperformed during that time frame.
Perhaps you might gain something from looking into short to medium term trading for strategies that have proven themselves in your desired time frame and then come back to spin-offs as a good place to find candidates that fit the criteria you have set out in your trading plan. I have found Van Tharp, Larry Williams, Lee Gettes, and others to be helpful in this regard, but there are lots of good sources.
Just be careful when someone starts telling you “all you have to do is . . . “. All you have to do in basketball is to throw a ball through a metal hoop, but you wouldn’t do it against Michael Jordan for money. Well, in trading there are lots of very smart, very skilled, very experienced people, who want to make the money too. A good trading plan coupled with working a corner of the market with the fewest sharks can give you a fighting chance, but there are no “sure things” here.
Sorry. I don’t mean to be discouraging. Lots of people succeed, but it doesn’t just fall into the laps of very many who I have ever met or even heard about.
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