Now we know that Encana intends to call its oil sands unit spin-off Cenovus.  We know what to call it, (though I haven’t heard what the ticker symbol will be.)  That just leaves us to try to figure out whether this is a good deal for us or not.

Generally, getting the oil out of the sand and refining it into a usable product depends on high oil prices.  It’s an expensive process.  The oil is there and they know how to get it, but they need someone to be willing to pay enough for it to make the whole thing profitable.

Right now the price of oil is trending in the wrong direction for this source to be profitable.  Will the price of oil reverse itself enough to make this a good investment?  Eventually to be sure, but when?

Perhaps from the point of view of one seeking value in a spin-off situation, the closer the price of oil edges toward oil sands extraction costs, the better a long term value this new company Cenovus will turn out to be.

Tags: Cenovus, ECA, Encana, spin off